Selected articles and notes
Notes on infrastructure investing, energy transition, and digital infrastructure across Asia-Pacific.
You Own Fewer Bets Than You Think
El Niño is not an asset risk. It is a portfolio factor, and most APAC renewables books hold far more of it than their diversification suggests.
The River Your Model Doesn't Control
Mekong hydropower rests on water regulated outside the concession. For equity, that is a return question, not a weather footnote.
The Independence Assumption Hiding in Your P90
A strengthening El Niño exposes the flaw in renewable energy's standard downside case: bad years arrive in clusters, not at random.
When Weather Moves to the Revenue Line
El Niño just became official. On a renewables grid, weather is no longer an operating detail. It is a revenue variable, and the models have not caught up.
The Infrastructure Test SpaceX Cannot Quite Pass
SpaceX is seeking a $1.75 trillion valuation on an infrastructure narrative. Applying conventional underwriting criteria segment by segment reveals a more complicated picture.
Why I Apply a Consumer TCO Lens Before Every EV Infrastructure Investment
Singapore's consumer EV economics are a bottom-up demand map for APAC charging infrastructure. A practitioner's read of where the real investment opportunity lies.
The real bottleneck in APAC renewables has moved
An investor's view on why the constraint in APAC renewables is shifting away from financing generic capacity and toward the infrastructure that makes power connectable, dispatchable, and bankable.
China's Solar Price Reset
A practical note on why recent PV price moves matter less for the absolute module price than for underwriting assumptions, contract structure, and bankability.
Decarbonisation without CAPEX
A practical framing of decarbonisation models that reduce upfront customer friction and widen the addressable market for infrastructure-backed energy solutions.
In progress
Research & writing process
My writing reflects my own investment views, experience and judgment. I use AI as part of the research and writing process, including source discovery, counter-argument testing, analysis, structuring, drafting and editing. I review the final analysis and conclusions and take responsibility for the published work.
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